However, some clinically mild cases have been reported, especially in children. There exists no reliable prediction of the mortality rate of an H5N1 pandemic, and it would be irresponsible to confine planning to only optimistic assumptions out of step with the currently observed case fatality ratio. Complications of influenza may include viral pneumonia, secondary bacterial pneumonia, sinus infections, and worsening of previous health problems such as asthma or heart failure. ", But note the discussion and critique New Study of Bird Flu Raises Important Issues January 9, 2006 http://www.acsh.org/factsfears/newsID.685/news_detail.asp. There is no basis for assuming that an H5N1 pandemic will emerge with only the far lower 1-2% lethality rate of the Spanish flu, once assumed to be a worst-case scenario. Moreover, the health care system is generally expected to be overwhelmed throughout a pandemic.
It helps the release of progeny viruses from infected cells. [45] The highly lethal second and third waves of the 1918 Spanish flu evolved through time into a less virulent and more transmissible human form. As long as the likelihood of protecting the population continues to rise with the passage of time, that likelihood becomes an increasingly important factor in predicting the loss of lives and the amount of economic dislocation that will ultimately occur. Birds have that receptor in their respiratory and digestive tracts. Efforts to identify the changes that might result in a human-communicable strain have resulted in laboratory-generated H5N1 with substantially greater affinity for human cellular receptors after a change of just two of the H5 surface proteins. As long as the likelihood of protecting the population continues to rise with the passage of time, that likelihood becomes an increasingly important factor in predicting the loss of lives and the amount of economic dislocation that will ultimately occur. Some isolates of influenza A virus cause severe disease both in domestic poultry and, rarely, in humans.

In the U.S. H5N1 pre-pandemic vaccines exist in quantities sufficient to inoculate a few million people [7] and might be useful for priming to "boost the immune response to a different H5N1 vaccine tailor-made years later to thwart an emerging pandemic". [1], H5N1 infections in humans are generally caused by bird to human transmission of the virus. Existing pre-pandemic global case fatality ratio, Pre-pandemic bird flu shots eyed / Health ministry to urge study of potential early vaccination recipients [47] Further information necessary to make an accurate projection of initial lethality of an H5N1 pandemic does not exist, as no data was collected that could show the pre-pandemic virulence in any potential flu strain until after the last pandemic of the 20th Century. "... 45 478 randomly selected (cluster sampling) inhabitants. "In the N1 form of the protein, a small segment called the 150-loop is inverted, creating a hollow pocket that does not exist in the N2 and N9 proteins.

Polymerase encoding gene segments are also implicated in why H5N1 is so deadly.

H5N2 is a subtype of the species Influenzavirus A. [17] H5N1 had evolved from a zero mortality rate to a 33% mortality rate.

It is known that influenza tends to strike during the winter months, and the second wave, which began in October, was fanned by a surge in poultry production timed for Chinese New Year feasts that began at the end of January. This is one genetic factor in why H5N1 is so deadly. Unfortunately, no. Pre-pandemic bird flu shots eyed / Health ministry to urge study of potential early vaccination recipients | (Daily Yomiuri Online + AP -- Apr. However, no pandemic strain of H5N1 has yet been found. Epub 2015 Feb 27. The majority of H5N1 flu cases have been reported in southeast and east Asia. The PB1 gene codes for the PB1 protein and the PB1-F2 protein. [56] Influenza pandemics from its genetic offspring may include influenza A virus subtypes other than H5N1. [57] While genetic analysis of the H5N1 virus shows that influenza pandemics from its genetic offspring can easily be far more lethal than the Spanish Flu pandemic,[58] planning for a future influenza pandemic is based on what can be done and there is no higher Pandemic Severity Index level than a Category 5 pandemic which, roughly speaking, is any pandemic as bad the Spanish flu or worse; and for which all intervention measures are to be used.[59]. [28] In fact, when less-virulent strains die off, the surviving strains are the more virulent. Such a result would indicate to epidemiologists that the world was confronting an H5N1 virus that is less-lethal than currently assumed, although possibly one that was more contagious and difficult to track.[32]. "[60] The H5N1 genes work together in ways we don't yet understand.
computer simulations of pandemic spread patterns (e.g. ",[67] suggesting that lethality may be reduced by vaccination against pneumonia. In 2007, 59 of the 86 WHO-confirmed cases ended in death, again a 69% fatality rate. An influenza pandemic is an epidemic of an influenza virus that spreads on a worldwide scale and infects a large proportion of the world population. One of those six people (a child) then infected another family member (his father). H5N1 NS1 is characterized by a single amino acid change at position 92.

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